Published: 02 April 2026

The CBOE VIX experienced significant price action today, driven by geopolitical escalations and a surge in energy prices. After a sharp morning spike, the index moderated throughout the afternoon as equity markets recovered from their session lows.

Trading was likely influenced by the upcoming long weekend, as U.S. markets are closed for Good Friday.  This contributed to defensive positioning ahead of three days of potential risk.

VIX Intraday

• • Last Price: 23.87 (as of 3:15 PM CDT)
  • Daily Range: 23.87 – 27.89
  • Opening Price: 26.78
  • Previous Close: 24.54

• Geopolitical Risk: The VIX gapped higher at the open, hitting a high of 27.89 in early trading. This followed a national address by President Trump late Wednesday, which signaled likley continuation of military action in Iran.
• Energy Markets: Global volatility surged over 8% as oil prices rose to over $112/barrel. Concerns remain regarding the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Market Reversal: Despite the concern, the VIX steadily declined from its morning highs as the S&P 500 recovered most of its 1.5% early loss. By mid-afternoon, the VIX fell below its previous close, reflecting a "volatility crush."

Published: 30 March 2026

The Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average have both officially entered correction territory (a 10% drop from a recent peak) this week.  The S&P 500 has not closed in correction territory, but is close.

The CBOE VIX is elevated above 30, reflecting sustained risk-off sentiment.

Current S&P 500 Standings:

• Closed down 0.4% at 6,343.72.
• It is currently 9.1% below its all-time high of 6,978.60 (January 27, 2026).
• The index needs to close at or below 6,280.74 to officially enter a correction (10% drop).

Market Summary:

• S&P 500: 6,343.72, -0.4% daily change, -9.1% from peak (Near-Correction).
• Nasdaq: 20,794.64, -0.7% daily change, In Correction (-10.5% YTD).
• Dow Jones: 45,216.14, +0.1% daily change, In Correction (~10% from peak).

Driving Factors:

• Escalating tensions from the fifth week of the war in Iran.
• Brent crude increasing to $114/barrel.
• Fears of "stagflation" (rising inflation and slowing growth).
• Today's decline was led by tech and chip stocks (Nvidia, Micron).
• Investors rotated into defensive blue chips and energy stocks (Exxon Mobil).

Published: 27 March 2026

Following a sharp decline on March 26, the NASDAQ index closed down approximately 10.9% from its all-time high of October 2025.  This downturn has been attributed to a combination of high valuations, rising oil prices, and geopolitical tensions.

Historically, corrections are relatively short-lived compared to bull or bear markets. Past correction experience includes:

• Time to Bottom: On average, about 4 months for a correction to reach its lowest point.
• Time to Recovery: about 8 to 11 months for the market to return to its previous record highs.

 While the NASDAQ is the first major index to experience a correction in 2026, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones are also currently experiencing significant pullbacks.  These indices have not yet fallen into 10% correction territory as of this writing.

Published: 24 March 2026

The most significant factor determining how long a geopolitical event affects financial markets is the current state of the economy, known as the "Recession Rule."

• Absence of Recession: Without an accompanying recession, markets usually treat geopolitical events as temporary disruptions. Market focus quickly returns to corporate earnings and interest rates, resulting in a recovery within weeks.
• Coincidence with Recession: If the event coincides with or initiates a recession (e.g.,1973 Oil Embargo), the market downturn can be significantly extended, potentially taking years rather than months for a full recovery.

Historical Recovery Timelines

The length of market disruption has historically varied based on the nature of the event and underlying economic conditions:

	Event		Market Recovery	Notes
	Cuban Missile Crisis (1962)		Bottomed in 8 days. Recovered in 18 days.	One of the fastest recoveries on record.
	September 11th Attacks (2001)		Recovered in 31 days.	Initial 11% drop.
	Iraq Invasion of Kuwait (1990)		Recovery in 189 days.	Slower recovery as the conflict coincided with an emerging U.S. recession.
	Pearl Harbor (1941)		Recovery 307 days.	Slow recovery during war and a period of pre-existing economic difficulty.

 

Long-Term Market Resilience

Financial markets have proven to be resilient against geopolitical shocks. While declines are common during the period of uncertainty, declines tend to be brief unless the event disrupts global supply chains, corporate earnings, or the broader economy. Historically, the S&P 500 has been higher one year after a geopolitical shock approximately 70–75% of the time.